Wednesday, May 13, 2009
- Canada's Recession History
Canada survived at least three major recessions and a depression in the last century. It’s interesting to compare those times with what we’re going through now. In many cases, the downward spiral followed a time of great prosperity and consumer confidence – just like today.
1904-1914: The early 1900s saw a strong economic boom, with an intense wave of speculation in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Interest rates were high but widely fluctuating. But in 1907, after a major meltdown on the NYSE, there was a run on US banks. Twelve major banks and trust companies folded. In Canada, this sent markets tumbling. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped three years in a row. 1929-39: Preceded by a huge stock market bubble and over-optimism in the Roaring ’20s, the Great Depression saw Canada’s unemployment rate hit 27 per cent. After a US law jacked up tariffs and cut global trade by 65 per cent, Canada became one of the nations hardest hit by the Depression. Our GDP fell by 43 per cent. Early 1980s: Sky-high energy prices preceded a drop in real Canadian GDP of almost 7 percent in just 18 months. Double digit inflation sent prime rates from 8 per cent in 1970 to a soaring 19 per cent in 1981. Early 1990s: Interest rates hit 14 percent, while Canada’s unemployment rate topped 10 per cent. GDP dropped by 2.13 per cent in a single year. Today: In January 2009, unemployment rose to 7.2 per cent. The Bank of Canada slashed interest rates to almost zero in March 2009. And GDP dropped 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. If we look at the history of Canadian recession, we will begin to feel slightly better when we consider what soon followed each of them...Recovery! So although we must plan for the current times, we should also look to the times ahead.